Playing “ what if ” with the weather for the August 2026 total eclipse
We’re approaching the 12-month countdown to the 2026 total solar eclipse, which most viewers will see from either Iceland or Spain. It’s always interesting to ask, “ What if we had the same weather on eclipse day as we’re seeing this year? ”
We’re approaching the 12-month countdown to the 2026 total solar eclipse, which most viewers will see from either Iceland or Spain. It’s always interesting to ask, “ What if we had the same weather on eclipse day as we’re seeing this year? ”
Photo WX ™ can help.
In the 1.5 update, released today, when you select a solar eclipse from the drop-down menu (see right of the screenshot, outlined in pink), the map now shows the direction (azimuth) of the sun and moon for the selected time of day (8:29 p.m. in this example for Burgos, link), but for the date of the eclipse:
This means that you can assess the available weather forecast for August 6, 2025 as it would impact the August 12, 2026 eclipse.
In this example, the high-resolution Arome HD model from Méteo France is forecasting a lot of high cloud (yellow on the map). The sun will be positioned low in the sky to the west-northwest, indicated by the orange line (labeled above).
As you might suspect, if the clouds play out like this, it could be problematic for eclipse viewers, given their extent.
What about tomorrow’s forecast?
Things look a little better if we look at the August 7 forecast:
This screenshot shows Cloud observability enabled (the sixth button from the top right on the map). As labeled, any high cloud under the yellow segment of the line will potentially obscure the line of sight to the sun at this time. This is calculated based on the altitude of the sun and the range of heights above the ground that are included in the high cloud forecast layer.
Overall, though, the forecast cloud density and extent are less foreboding than those of the August 6 forecast.
Weather Models and Locations
The examples above show northern Spain, but you can do the same exercise for other locations, e.g., western Iceland. The Arome HD model does not cover Iceland, but its sister model Arpege Europe (slightly lower resolution at 11 km) does:
Why play “ what if ”?
A few reasons to indulge this strange weather prognosticating:
- You will get to see some of the forecast patterns that may be repeated a year from now
- You’ll get better at reading the forecasts - particularly the multi-level cloud layer, which is critical for eclipse weather planning
- You’ll develop a sense of which way weather models tend to skew — some predict more cloud than others.
- You’ll develop a sharper sense of what cloud patterns are problematic for your planned location
- You’ll be able to start to think about “ Plan B ” relocation options in case the weather is challenging.
Enjoy exploring the forecasts — in the next few days, why not:
- Check out your planned location (and any backup plans you have) in Photo WX
- Compare and contrast the different weather models (e.g., AROME HD vs ARPEGE EU vs ECMWF vs GFS)
- Make a note of the types of weather patterns you see in the forecasts (particularly cloud) and how they tend to move over time: do the clouds move into your line of sight over time or away?
Read More
Don’t forget: in addition to the “ what if ” weather functionality in Photo WX, we have comprehensive eclipse planning tools available in TPE. More about all of these below: